American Professor Daniel Cerwer of Johns Hopkins University has analysed political developments in Serbia, talking about the loss of power by Aleksandar Vuciqi, the victory of the Student List, and the challenges facing the new parliamentary majority.
Cerwer praised that Vuciqi accepted defeat with dignity and without delay, while stressing that the Student List will have a considerable advantage if it manages to preserve unity. According to him, this list could provide 135 to 140 seats in Serbia’s Parliament, which has a total of 250 deputies.
In the analysis published on his page, Serwer wrote that presidential elections were scheduled for December 26th to replace Vucicin, who has completed the mandate and has resigned in hopes of returning to the prime minister’s post.
Speaking of Vuciqi’s foreign policy, the American professor said he was initially presented as a pro-European, but later strengthened ties with Moscow and Beijing, while continuing to hold Washington and Brussels with promises of lithium and ammunition for Ukraine.
According to Cerwer, Vuciqi re-armed Serbia at great cost and tried to undermine Kosovo’s citizenship, while publicly claiming to be negotiating the normalisation of relations.
He also estimated that during Vuciqi’s rule, Serbia became increasingly autocratic and corrupt, with media under government control and contracts that, according to him, distributed to those close to power.
Serwer stressed that the European Union has been aware of what it describes as Vuciqi’s treachery and has begun to slow down Serbia’s membership process. Meanwhile, the US administration has distanced from him following the failure of an agreement Vuciqi had promised Jared Kouchner, while members of the US Congress have added criticism of his closeness to Russia and China.
As for the Student List, Serwer said it built its support through civic mobilization, moving from protests against violence in environmental issues and fighting corruption.
He praised its programme for focusing on rule of law, free media, meritocracy, education, employment, food, housing and health. According to him, MPs’ candidates have been selected by student-led éplenums, after interviews, while the list consists mainly of professionals and is guided by a cardiologist.
However, Serwer warned that the new majority would not be easy to govern. He praised that Vuciki representatives, with their experience in parliamentary procedures and political maneuvers, would try to make it difficult for new MPs.
According to him, the Student List will have to establish discipline and organise to face new challenges, while the election of the new president in December will be crucial.
Serwer noted that new representatives have spoken little about foreign policy, and that some of their positions on Kosovo remain problematic. He referred to Kraguyevci’s Memorandum, who reiterated Serbia’s claim of sovereignty over Kosovo, but also cited the possibility that the new leadership will seek ways to ease the issue.
The American professor expects new MPs to try to accelerate Serbia’s membership in the European Union and improve relations with the United States. However, he does not expect an immediate break from Russia and China, due to Moscow’s influence on the Serbian security device and Chinese investments in the country.
In the end, Serwer voiced hope that Serbia will gradually be oriented towards the West, correcting the political course followed by Vuciqi towards the East.
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Source Layer: Signal
