{"id":2532,"date":"2026-05-09T15:51:21","date_gmt":"2026-05-09T15:51:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/momenti.info\/index.php\/2026\/05\/09\/analiza-e-shenoll-muharremit-per-rezultatin-e-7-qershorit-ldk-me-osmanin-shkon-mbi-200-mije-vota-tkurret-lvv\/"},"modified":"2026-05-09T15:51:21","modified_gmt":"2026-05-09T15:51:21","slug":"analiza-e-shenoll-muharremit-per-rezultatin-e-7-qershorit-ldk-me-osmanin-shkon-mbi-200-mije-vota-tkurret-lvv","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/momenti.info\/index.php\/2026\/05\/09\/analiza-e-shenoll-muharremit-per-rezultatin-e-7-qershorit-ldk-me-osmanin-shkon-mbi-200-mije-vota-tkurret-lvv\/","title":{"rendered":"Analiza e Shenoll Muharremit p\u00ebr rezultatin e 7 qershorit: LDK me Osmanin shkon mbi 200 mij\u00eb vota, tkurret LVV"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Analisti, Shenoll Muharremi, ka b\u00ebr\u00eb nj\u00eb kalkulim t\u00eb votave potenciale q\u00eb partit\u00eb politike mund t\u2019i marrin n\u00eb zgjedhjet e 7 qershorit bazuar n\u00eb l\u00ebvizjet e fundit q\u00eb po ndodhin dhe duke u bazuar n\u00eb rezultatin e zgjedhjeve t\u00eb shkurtit dhe dhjetorit 2025.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ai ka marr\u00eb nj\u00eb mesatare t\u00eb votave t\u00eb dy pal\u00eb zgjedhjeve t\u00eb kaluara, duke e nxjerr\u00eb LDK\u2019n\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00eb mesatare prej 150 mij\u00eb votave, apo diku tek 16 %.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sipas Muharremit, n\u00ebse kalimi i Vjosa Osmanit ia shton rreth 60 mij\u00eb vota LDK-s\u00eb, at\u00ebher\u00eb i bie q\u00eb partia e Abdixhikut t\u00eb shkoj\u00eb n\u00eb 210 mij\u00eb vota apo 23 %, derisa LVV t\u00eb bie n\u00eb 39.7<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cN\u00ebse supozojm\u00eb q\u00eb do t\u00eb kemi rreth 830,000 votues m\u00eb 7 qershor, at\u00ebher\u00eb LDK do t\u00eb ket\u00eb deri\/rreth 25% t\u00eb votave. Por n\u00ebse kemi pjes\u00ebmarrje psh 900,000, LDK do i k\u00ebt\u00eb 23% me 210,000 vota. Kjo do t\u00eb ishte nj\u00eb fitore kredibile nga rreth 13% sa kishte t\u00eb rritej n\u00eb mbi 20% e gjithashtu edhe mund ta tkurr\u00eb LVV-n\u00eb deri n\u00eb 39.7%.\u201d, ka shkruar ai.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Postimi i plot\u00eb:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00a0Sa vota mund t’i marrin LDK + Lista Vjosa m\u00eb 7 qershor?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

E b\u00ebra nj\u00eb ushtrim me t\u00eb dh\u00ebna reale t\u00eb zgjedhjeve t\u00eb 9 shkurtit dhe 28 dhjetorit 2025 p\u00ebr me kuptu sa mundet me shku, hipotetikisht, LDK n\u00eb zgjedhjet e ardhshme.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kjo parti pati fat t\u00eb keq m\u00eb 28 dhjetor me vet\u00ebm 126,102 vota dhe 13.23%. Mes tjerash, spekulohet q\u00eb nj\u00eb num\u00ebr i theksuar i votuesve t\u00eb tyre kan\u00eb qen\u00eb jasht\u00eb Kosov\u00ebs p\u00ebr festat e fundvitit me k\u00ebt\u00eb rast. N\u00eb fillim t\u00eb vitit 2025, m\u00eb 9 shkurt, kjo parti mori 171,357\u00a0 vota dhe 18.27%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

P\u00ebr me kuptu sa vota mund t’i marr\u00eb eventualisht m\u00eb 7 qershor, mundemi me th\u00ebn\u00eb q\u00eb ndoshta nj\u00eb mesatare mes 9 shkurtit dhe 28 dhjetorit \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb baz\u00eb e mir\u00eb p\u00ebr me kuptu sa e ka vler\u00ebn aktuale. Kjo n\u00ebnkupton q\u00eb LDK aktualisht ka rreth 150,000 vota dhe rreth 15%-16%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Po Vjosa Osmani me list\u00ebn, sa vota mund t’i sjell\u00eb?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kjo nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb aspak e leht\u00eb t\u00eb dihet, p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb natyr\u00ebs tep\u00ebr komplekse t\u00eb zgjedhjeve dhe “transferit” nga nj\u00eb kamp n\u00eb tjetrin. Sidoqoft\u00eb, edhe pse Osmani ka qen\u00eb politikanja m\u00eb e p\u00eblqyer si individ sa ka qen\u00eb presidente, kjo nuk do t\u00eb thot\u00eb q\u00eb t\u00eb gjitha ato vota transferohen te LDK.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

N\u00eb fakt, votat q\u00eb Vjosa Osmani i ka fituar me LVV n\u00eb 2021 nuk jan\u00eb aspak indikator kredibil p\u00ebr t’u marr\u00eb si baz\u00eb k\u00ebsaj radhe. Gjithashtu, nuk mundemi me supozu tash q\u00eb, n\u00ebse Vjosa Osmani ishte politikanja m\u00eb e p\u00eblqyer, ajo do t\u00eb marr\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb vota sesa psh Albin Kurti. Kjo nuk funksionon k\u00ebshtu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Megjithat\u00eb, p\u00ebr t\u00eb nxjerr\u00eb nj\u00eb supozim se sa vota do t’i sjell\u00eb Osmani nga LVV te LDK n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb rast, ndoshta numri m\u00eb i p\u00ebraf\u00ebrt do t\u00eb ishte rreth 50,000-60,000 vota. E p\u00ebr me i shtu ato vota LDK-s\u00eb, ato vota duhet t\u00eb merren (kthehen) diku, mesiguri nga LVV.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gjithashtu duhet kuptuar q\u00eb ndoshta deri 100,000 persona m\u00eb pak mund t\u00eb i kemi nga diaspora k\u00ebsaj radhe. N\u00ebse supozojm\u00eb q\u00eb deri 160,000 votues kan\u00eb ardhur fizikisht p\u00ebr t\u00eb votuar m\u00eb 28 dhjetor, k\u00ebsaj radhe kishim me supozu q\u00eb do t\u00eb jen\u00eb maksimumi 40% e tyre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

K\u00ebshtu q\u00eb pjes\u00ebmarrja mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb m\u00eb e ul\u00ebt k\u00ebsaj radhe. Jo vet\u00ebm nga diaspora, por gjithashtu nga lodhja e votuesve p\u00ebr shkak se po votojn\u00eb p\u00ebr her\u00ebn e pest\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00eb periudh\u00eb t\u00eb shkurt\u00ebr.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

N\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb kontekst, n\u00ebse Vjosa Osmani i sjell rreth 60,000 vota shtes\u00eb, dhe i kemi parasysh rreth 150,000 votat aktuale organike t\u00eb LDK-s\u00eb, at\u00ebher\u00eb LDK mund t\u00eb shkoj\u00eb n\u00eb nivelin e 210,000 votave. Ndoshta, n\u00eb rastin m\u00eb t\u00eb mir\u00eb, 230,000, nd\u00ebrsa n\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb keqin 180,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

N\u00ebse supozojm\u00eb q\u00eb do t\u00eb kemi rreth 830,000 votues m\u00eb 7 qershor, at\u00ebher\u00eb LDK do t\u00eb ket\u00eb deri\/rreth 25% t\u00eb votave. Por n\u00ebse kemi pjes\u00ebmarrje psh 900,000, LDK do i k\u00ebt\u00eb 23% me 210,000 vota. Kjo do t\u00eb ishte nj\u00eb fitore kredibile nga rreth 13% sa kishte t\u00eb rrithej n\u00eb mbi 20% e gjithashtu edhe mund ta tkurr\u00eb LVV-n\u00eb deri n\u00eb 39.7%.<\/p>\n

The post Analiza e Shenoll Muharremit p\u00ebr rezultatin e 7 qershorit: LDK me Osmanin shkon mbi 200 mij\u00eb vota, tkurret LVV<\/a> appeared first on Gazeta Express<\/a>.<\/p><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Analisti, Shenoll Muharremi, ka b\u00ebr\u00eb nj\u00eb kalkulim t\u00eb votave potenciale q\u00eb partit\u00eb politike mund t\u2019i marrin n\u00eb zgjedhjet e 7 qershorit bazuar n\u00eb l\u00ebvizjet e fundit q\u00eb po ndodhin dhe duke u bazuar n\u00eb rezultatin e zgjedhjeve t\u00eb shkurtit dhe dhjetorit 2025. Ai ka marr\u00eb nj\u00eb mesatare t\u00eb votave t\u00eb dy pal\u00eb zgjedhjeve t\u00eb kaluara, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2533,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/www.gazetaexpress.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/kurti-vjosa.png","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-2532","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-lajme"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/momenti.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2532","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/momenti.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/momenti.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/momenti.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/momenti.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2532"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/momenti.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2532\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/momenti.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2533"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/momenti.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2532"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/momenti.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2532"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/momenti.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2532"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}